| Editor's
Note:
The Center for Strategic and Future Studies
recently hosted a closed roundtable discussion on
the region's security before and after the
anticipated change in Iraq. The discussion was
attended by Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman from the Center
for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington D.C., and retired officers from Kuwait's
Armed Forces.
DISCUSSION ON IRAQ: SECURITY ASPECTS
A DISCUSSION WITH DR. ANTHONY CORDESMAN
The following report is a summary of the
discussion, and the participants' comments are
highlighted in this report without attribution.
The participants were:
Dr. Anthony Cordesman - Arleigh A. Burke
Chair in Strategic and International Studies,
Washington, DC
Colonel Abdulkareem al-Gharaballay (Ret.) -
Kuwait Air Force
Brigadier-General Mohammad al-Sirri (Ret.) -
Former Director of Public Relations and Moral
Guidance Department, Kuwait Armed Forces
Major-General Saber al-Suwaidan (Ret.) -
Former commander of the Kuwait Air Force
Dr. Shafeeq Ghabra - Director of the Center
for Strategic and Future Studies And Professor of
Political Science at Kuwait University
PRELUDE TO WAR
United Nations Security Council resolution 1441
was made deliberately ambiguous as it does not
defuse the standoff even if the International Atomic
Energy Agency declares Iraq to be free from weapons
of mass destruction (WMD) and war is avoided.
However, if war is decided upon, the 'No-Fly Zones'
may serve as the area for a first strike.
Some participants played down the risk of a
bio-chemical attack on Kuwait and maintained that
due to technical reasons bio-chemical weapons are
not as lethal in reality as they are in theory.
Furthermore, in 1991 Iraq's agent delivery vehicles
were unitary - weapons that explode upon surface
impact - and were proven ineffective in spreading
bio-chemical agents since the agents need to
disperse in the air. Therefore, some participants
believed that it is more probable that Kuwait would
suffer a terrorist attack that spreads small pox,
radioactive agents, or anthrax.
THE WAR
The participants believed that war is inevitable
and some believed that the Iraqi forces will be
quickly paralyzed between six to eight weeks. Some
maintained that losses will be suffered, yet they
asserted that collateral damage is accepted in the
post-September 11th world.
Some participants said that the chance of urban
warfare is slim and that Iraqi forces are expected
to show little resistance to U.S. and British
forces. Moreover, some advocated the need to
preserve Iraq's military - if the opportunity exists
- in order to maintain the region's stability and
security.
POST-SADDAM IRAQ - CONCERNS AND REQUIREMENTS
Some participants were concerned about the degree
of the U.S. administration's commitment in building
a democratic government in Iraq, while other
participants were concerned about the region's
security. In regards to the U.S. commitment, some
maintained that democracy is a domestic issue and a
foreign commitment can only help. Moreover, the
warlords must not be given a channel through which
they can gain access to power. They believed that
security is a necessary element for democracy to
grow, and that the Iraqi army needs to be overhauled
in order to achieve both security and democracy.
Security and stability may be facilitated if
Kuwait and other countries abandon their claims for
war reparations for Iraq's Invasion of Kuwait, and
some also proposed the abandonment of all pre-1990
Iraqi debts owed to Kuwait. However, some stressed
that the post-Saddam Iraq must be required to
declare any military mobility in southern Iraq.
ABOUT THE CENTER FOR
STRATEGIC AND FUTURE STUDIES
Established in
the year 2000, the Center for Strategic and Future
Studies is
an independent Kuwaiti think-tank affiliated with
Kuwait University. The
governing body is a Board of Trustees comprised of
11 members from both
within and outside the university, representing a
wide range of experience
and expertise in the public and private spheres.
Its focus is on major and
current strategic issues relating to Kuwait, the
Gulf region, and the Middle
East. The center seeks to build awareness and
encourage debate on sensitive
issues, primarily in the realm of East/West
discussions and strategic
issues.
In this
capacity, the center tries to reach out to
non-Islamic and non-Arab
nations and cultures in the spirit of debate,
understanding, and mutual
tolerance. In doing so, our activities
include: conferences, seminars,
roundtable discussions, publications, media
analyses, and large-scale E-mail
distributions of our reports and studies.
Center for
Strategic and Future Studies
Kuwait University
Director: Dr. Shafeeq Ghabra
Media & Research Coordinator: Farah Al-Nakib
Tel : (+965)
483-4197
Fax : (+965) 482-4645
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