One wonders if RAND Corporation analyst Laurent Murawiec could have imagined
his July 10, 2002 briefing "Taking Saudi Out of Arabia" to the Defense
Policy Board (DPB) would have launched him into his "15 minutes of fame"
inside the Beltway less than a month later.  That's exactly what happened
when an August 6, 2002 Washington Post article by Thomas Ricks, titled
"Briefing Depicted Saudis as Enemies," outlining the think-tank
presentation, reinvigorated the post-"9/11" wave of Saudi-bashing.

Murawiec's briefing labeled Saudi Arabia "the most dangerous opponent" of the United States in the Middle East.  The briefing to the DPB, chaired by Richard N. Perle, called for the U.S. to issue an ultimatum to Saudi Arabia to halt various activities or risk having oil fields, financial investments and holy places targeted.

Administration officials from the White House and the Pentagon were quick to
disassociate U.S. government positions and policy from the Murawiec
briefing.  Defense Department spokeswoman Victoria Clarke was quickest on
the draw, having a written statement available for citation in the
Washington Post article that launched the brouhaha Tuesday morning, "Neither
the presentations nor the Defense Policy Board members' comments reflect the
official views of the Department of Defense... ...Saudi Arabia is a
long-standing friend and ally of the United States. The Saudis cooperate
fully in the global war on terrorism and have the Department's and the
Administration's deep appreciation."

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, responding to a Pentagon "Town Hall"
questioner, said, "This apparently was a person from the Rand Corporation
who was giving a briefing, and he briefed on Saudi Arabia, and it ended up
in the newspaper, which is unfortunate. He had an opinion, and of course
everyone has a right to their opinion. It did not represent the views of the
government, it didn't represent the views of the Defense Policy Board.
Clearly, somebody decided that it was a good idea to take something that was
that potentially controversial -- I almost said 'inflammatory' -- and give
it to a newspaper, even though the meeting was a classified meeting and a
closed meeting of the Defense Policy Board."

Over in Foggy Bottom, Secretary Colin Powell was on the phone to his Saudi
counterpart, Prince Faisal, to tell him the Murawiec briefing did not
represent the views of the President or his Administration, according to a
Saudi Embassy press release.  It went on to note that Powell "reiterated the
U.S. Government's long-standing position regarding the close and historic
ties between the two countries, and emphasized that there is no change in
the strong relationship between them."

Meanwhile, the bashing drumbeat spilled over beyond the usual pundit-cycle
and showed little sign of slowing by week's end.  It's been a long "15
minutes" for the man from RAND.

Against this background we are pleased to bring you a thoughtful essay by
Mr. David Silverberg, Managing Editor of "The Hill."  Titled, "Don't Make
Saudi Friend Into Arab Foe," it serves as a sober assessment of the
U.S.-Saudi relationship and prescription for the future.  We thank "The
Hill" for permission to present it for your consideration.

Patrick W. Ryan
Editor-in-Chief, GulfWire

* * *

Related Material:

"Taking Exception: The U.S. Defense Policy Review Board's Briefing On Saudi
Arabia -- Al Jazeera Interview With Dr. John Duke Anthony" - "GulfWire
Perspectives" - August 6, 2002
[Available in GulfWire archives for subscribers to the GulfWire 2002
CD/Members' Only Web Site - for more information see:
http://www.arabialink.com/GWCD 

Also see:
"The PowerPoint That Rocked the Pentagon - The LaRouchie defector who's
advising the defense establishment on Saudi Arabia," by Jack Shafer,
"Slate," August 7, 2002

Ever since President Franklin Roosevelt and Saudi King Ibn Saud established
the U.S.-Saudi relationship in 1945, the countries have experienced deep
differences and close embraces.

One of the most significant differences came in 1973 and 1974 when King
Faisal led a global oil embargo against the United States for supporting
Israel. The result was talk of the United States invading Saudi Arabia to
ensure a steady supply of oil.

There have been moments of close cooperation: In 1990 the United States
rushed troops to Saudi Arabia when it feared that Saddam Hussein was not
going to stop with the conquest of Kuwait but would keep rolling over the
Saudi Arabian oil fields. Saudi Arabia provided bases and logistical support
for the international coalition. American forces turned back an Iraqi
incursion into the Saudi town of Khafji. American and allied troops remained
to monitor Iraq, protect Saudi Arabia, and, by extension, protect the Saudi
regime.

Today the U.S.-Saudi relationship is facing another crisis. Saudi
cooperation with the United States has been lacking in the fight against
terror. There are reports that al Qaeda fugitives are finding refuge in
Saudi Arabia and that Saudi contributions have financed Islamic terror
groups. Saudi Arabia has also refused to cooperate with the United States in
planning and executing operations against Iraq. Saudi media strongly
condemns Israeli actions while overlooking Palestinian terrorism.

All this is prompting some American neoconservatives to start viewing Saudi
Arabia as an enemy. Indeed, a briefing by RAND analyst Laurent Murawiec to
the Defense Policy Board that was leaked to The Washington Post and appeared
in that newspaper on Tuesday depicted Saudi Arabia as an enemy of the United
States, "the kernel of evil, the prime mover, the most dangerous opponent"
of the United States in the Middle East.

This portrait is overdrawn. The United States and Saudi Arabia have many
differences but Saudi Arabia is hardly an enemy.

Furthermore, the U.S.-Saudi differences go to the heart of the Saudi
family's fears for its continuation in power. It's worth remembering that
Osama bin Laden's first target was the Saudi royal family, who declared him
to be an outlaw in the early 1990s. It's a safe bet that the family remains
a target and the failure of the United States to conclusively kill or
capture Osama bin Laden means that he may still be at large and targeting
the Saudi regime. The family is trying to placate potential enemies and keep
dangerous fundamentalism at bay.

The Saudi monarchy has always been acutely aware of its weaknesses and this
goes to the heart of the U.S.-Saudi relationship. In its crudest terms, the
United States provides protection to the Saudi regime both internally and
externally while Saudi Arabia provides oil to the United States and the West
on relatively favorable terms. Both sides depend on each other. In a
geopolitical context, Saudi Arabia provides some stability to the region and
gives the United States a base for operations.

At the same time, both countries are sovereign states with their own
interests and internal dynamics. These forces don't necessarily coincide.
It's the job of the diplomats and officials of both countries to calibrate
this relationship to mutual advantage.

Right now Saudi Arabia is not an enemy of the United States and it's simply
absurd to depict it as such. Indeed, the critics' prophecies may become
self-fulfilling. By repeatedly portraying Saudi Arabia as an enemy and
treating it that way, they could create an active enemy where none existed.
This would be tragic, misguided and terribly self-destructive.

Saudi Arabia may not be advancing American goals as much as we would like it
to. The kingdom may also be giving some aid and succor to the enemy. But
this is a far cry from having an active, committed opponent who could do the
United States real damage.

The best way for the United States to remain on an even keel with the Saudis
is by being decisive and committed to a clear set of goals. Ambiguity,
indecisiveness and timidity gain no respect in the Middle East. It's as
Osama bin Laden himself said in the notorious videotape: "When people see a
strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse."

If the United States is the strong horse and remains such, Saudi Arabia will
fall into the herd and run with it. In the meantime, the United States has
no need to make a new enemy of an old friend.

                              ~~perspectives~~

David Silverberg is managing editor of The Hill. He can be reached at
mailto:DavidS@hillnews.com 

Reprinted with permission of David Silverberg, Managing Editor, "The Hill"

ABOUT "THE HILL" FROM http://www.thehill.com 

The Hill is a non-partisan, non-ideological weekly newspaper that describes
the inner workings of Congress, the pressures confronting policy makers and
the many ways -- often unpredictable -- in which decisions are made.

Founded in 1994 by Martin Tolchin after 40 years as a reporter with The New
York Times, the newspaper features strong investigative reporting and
frequently breaks stories that are widely cited in national publications.
The newspaper also profiles lawmakers and aides, offers features describing
the sociology and politics of the Hill, book and restaurant reviews and a
weekly column about the Capitol Hill neighborhoods.

Its print circulation of 21,000, the largest of any Capitol Hill
publication, is aimed at the 100 senators, 435 House members, 40,000 aides
and tens of thousands in the influence industry whose work affects the lives
of all Americans. The newspaper is a subsidiary of News Communications Inc.,
a publicly owned company.

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