A WEEKLY e-NEWSLETTER                      
                            (Number 37)
          INFORMATION AND INSIGHTS ON MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS
 
              THE NATIONAL COUNCIL ON U.S.-ARAB RELATIONS
                               AND
              THE U.S.-GCC CORPORATE COOPERATION COMMITTEE
 
                        MARCH 20, 2000
 
CONTENTS:
o   NEWS
  ·   OMAN
        -PRESIDENT CLINTON TO VISIT
        -SEIZED OIL CARGO SOLD  
  ·   QATAR
        -'E-GOVERNMENT' PLANS  
  ·   SAUDI ARABIA
        -MISSING PILOT REMAINS RECOVERY  
  ·   UAE
        -KOSOVO PEACEKEEPING FORCE  
o   BUSINESS
  ·   REGION
        -ENERGY FUTURES
        -WHITE HOUSE CALLING
        -OIL SHORTFALL
        -CHINA'S ENERGY 'QUEST'  
  ·   BAHRAIN
        -SATELLITE BROADCASTER MOVES TO BAHRAIN 
  ·   KUWAIT
        -UGB PERFORMANCE JUMP
        -BEEF BAN  
  ·   OMAN
        -MARKET TRANSPARENCY 
  ·   SAUDI ARABIA
        -UNDERSEA CABLE REPORT ~ CORRECTION
        -AIRCRAFT OVERHAUL SERVICES  
  ·   UAE
        -2000 BUDGET RED INK  
        -INTERNET CITY PORTRAIT
        -AIRPORT INFORMATION SYSTEM SALE
        -BANK REVENUES DOWN 
·   PERSPECTIVES
    o    The Worldwide Threat in 2000: Global Realities of Our National
         Security - Iraq [Excerpt from Statement by Director of Central
         Intelligence George J. Tenet Before the Senate Foreign
         Relations Committee, Washington, DC
    o    Report Of Group Of Experts On Iraqi Oil Industry Released - UN
         Headquarters, New York
    o    IEA Examines China’s Quest for Worldwide Energy Security
 
 
·   LAST LINES
 
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                 ~~~ HEADLINES ~~~~~~ HEADLINES ~~~~~~
 
·   OMAN
 
PRESIDENT CLINTON TO VISIT
President Clinton will visit Oman on March 25 to meet with His Majesty
Sultan Qaboos bin Said, according to a March 21 White House press statement
issued in New Delhi, India. Clinton will fly from Islamabad, Pakistan, to
Oman before his trip to Geneva, Switzerland.  Source: U.S. State Department
 
SEIZED OIL CARGO SOLD
The cargo of a Russian-flagged tanker seized last month for violating UN
sanctions imposed on Iraq was purchased by the Oman Refinery Co according to Arif Ali writing in Gulf News.  The cargo was estimated to be worth
$500,000.  The UN will receive the proceeds of the sale after unloading
costs are deducted.  The vessel was tracked by U.S. Navy-led maritime
interception forces and seized in international waters.  It was diverted to
Oman and later released after off-loading its cargo.  Source: Gulf News
Related Articles:
RISE IN IRAQI OIL SMUGGLING - GulfWire March 6, 2000
IRAQ WAS SOURCE FOR RUSSIAN TANKER OIL - GulfWire Feb 14, 2000
 
·   QATAR

'E-GOVERNMENT' PLANS
Doha will implement an "e-government" model using the Internet to cut
administrative costs and streamline the bureaucracy according to a Qatar
University official cited by Gulf times and AFP on March 13.  Vice Dean
Ahmad Al-Mohanadi said, "We are now working on an e-government model which
will help provide comprehensive services to citizens and expatriates."  He
added, "Most services provided by the government to citizens, residents and external agencies will be available."  According to Al-Mohanadi the project would take about 30 months to implement and he added, "We are now awaiting a final decision from the highest authorities."  Source: AFP

· SAUDI ARABIA

MISSING PILOT REMAINS RECOVERY
An Iraqi foreign ministry official recently said Baghdad was ready to work
with Saudi Arabia to begin the search for the body of a Saudi pilot downed
over an uninhabited part of Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War according to AFP
on March 13.  Source: AFP, AROL

·   UAE

KOSOVO PEACEKEEPING FORCE
King Abdullah of Jordan and UAE Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lt.Gen. Shaikh
Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan recently visited UAE's and Jordan's
peacekeeping forces in Kosovo according to Khaleej Times on March 14.
Lt.Gen. Nahyan said, "We are committed to this operation and will stay here for sure until at least the end of 2001."  UAE peacekeepers are assigned to the French-controlled sector.  Source: Khaleej Times

~~~~BUSINESS AND FINANCE NEWS~~~~

· REGIONAL

ENERGY FUTURES - AT WEEK'S END - 03.17.00
Light Crude (NYM)         $29.00/bbl DOWN from $31.75/bbl on 03.10.00
Brent Crude (IPE)         $26.56/bbl DOWN from $27.41/bbl on 03.10.00
Heating Oil (NYM)         $.717/gal DOWN from $.745/gal on 03.10.00
Natural Gas (NYM)         $2.79/mmbtu UP from $2.77/mmbtu on 03.10.00
Unleaded Gas (NYM)        $.935/gal DOWN from $.993/gal on 03.10.00
Source: CNNfn.com 

WHITE HOUSE CALLING
U.S. President Bill Clinton talked with Saudi Arabia's King Fahd and UAE's
President Shaikh Zaid Bin Sultan Al-Nahayan last week according to Reuters
on March 19.  It was not disclosed if the leaders discussed oil prices.
OPEC oil ministers meet on March 27 to decide on the future of expiring oil production cuts responsible for current global shortages and high prices. Source: Reuters

OIL SHORTFALL
World oil supplies are short 500,000 to 1,000,000 barrels per day (bpd)
according to International Energy Agency executive director Robert Priddle
in a Reuters report.  He told a news conference on March 20, "Without stock rebuild, I would say we would need between half and a million barrels of additional supply.  Leaving aside rebuilding stocks, that's what's necessary to balance supply and demand in the second quarter."  Reuters said an IEA forecast earlier this month called for an additional 2.3 million bpd to meet demand, restore refinery profitability and allow consuming nations to restore inventories.  Source: Reuters

CHINA'S ENERGY 'QUEST'
The International Energy Agency said "China is asserting itself as a
powerful new force in the international energy markets," according to
Reuters on March 20.  The Paris-based IEA released a report called, "China's Worldwide Quest for Energy Security," which said, "China has taken steps to diversify its import sources to Africa and other parts of the world as well, but it is now turning like everyone else to the one region with the most abundant supplies."  The report added, "China will have to rely primarily on traded oil, primarily from the Middle East."  Source: Reuters 
Related Site:
International Energy Agency
See Press Release below in "Perspectives"

· BAHRAIN

SATELLITE BROADCASTER MOVES TO BAHRAIN
The Orbit satellite-broadcasting network will move its base of operations
from Rome to Bahrain according to a company spokesman cited by Reuters on
March 16.  The network, which operates radio and television broadcasts in
English, Arabic and French to the Middle East and North Africa, is owned by the Al-Mawarid Group, a Saudi holding company.  The Orbit spokesman said the move was being made to be closer to the network's viewers.  Source: Reuters

· KUWAIT

UGB PERFORMANCE JUMP
United Gulf Bank (UGB) announced a 98.5 percent increase in net profits for the 1999 financial year.  Its jump from revenues of $9.11 million in 1998 to $18.08 million in 1999 were attributed to improvements in almost all areas of the bank's investment activities according to the Bahrain Tribune last week.  UGB is a member of Kuwait Projects Company.
Source: Bahrain Tribune

BEEF BAN
Kuwait is the latest GCC state to ban the importation of Danish beef and
related products suspected of carrying "mad cow" disease according to
Reuters on March 15.  Officials in Denmark said last month the disease,
known as BSE, had infected a milk cow.  Bahrain, Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia have already announced bans on Danish beef.  Source: Reuters

· OMAN

MARKET TRANSPARENCY
The Muscat Securities Market committee recently decided to adopt
transparency in market fluctuations to regain investors' confidence
according to the Oman News Agency.  Source: ONA

· SAUDI ARABIA

UNDERSEA CABLE REPORT ~ CORRECTION
Business Wire reported a correction to a Reuter's report, cited by GulfWire last week, concerning Saudi Telecommunications Company (STC) having bought an undersea fiberoptic cable.  The correction, issued March 20, said STC purchased capacity on the FLAG (Fiberoptic Link Around the Globe) Europe-Asia cable system.  FLAG Telecom also confirmed that STC purchased 4 x STM-1 level (620 Mb) capacity on the FLAG Europe-Asia cable system between Jeddah and New York, the largest single capacity purchase on any cable emanating in the Middle East. Terms of the multi-million dollar agreement were not disclosed.
Related Site:
Flag Telecom 

AIRCRAFT OVERHAUL SERVICES
Hawker Pacific Aerospace announced it has begun providing aircraft overhaul services to Saudi Arabian Airlines according to Business Wire on March 20. The California based firm will provide landing gear overhauls for 13 B737 and 11 A300-600 aircraft.  Source: Business News
Related Site: hawker Aerospace

· UAE

2000 BUDGET RED INK
The UAE budget for 2000 was approved last week with a forecast deficit of
about $664 million according to a WAM news agency report cited by AFP on
March 13.  The estimated revenue for the year is $5.634 billion against an
overall spending forecast of $6.298 billion.  The oil pricing estimates used to formulate the revenue forecast were not disclosed.  AFP said the 1999 deficit reached $680 million on revenues of $5.56 billion against spending of $6.24 billion. Source: WAM, AFP

INTERNET CITY PORTRAIT
The head of Dubai Internet City (DIC), Mohammed Al-Gergawi described the
$272 million project, announced last October, as an "incubator" for
e-commerce in the region.  The project offers companies 100 percent foreign ownership, 50- year land leases and corporate and personal tax exemptions. He discussed his view of the project with Reuters last weeks.  Highlights: 
· "A lot of authorities look only after big names and in the 'dot com' era, the ball game is different. You don't need big names…  The most important thing is really the start-up business.  That's why, within Dubai Internet City we'll have a lot of incubators."
· "We don't want to be a Silicon Valley. Dubai is Dubai...We are doing it
different than Silicon Valley."  Gergawi described DIC as an "amalgamation
of Wall Street, a university campus and a television studio."
· DIC's Internet university will offer courses in Internet business,
finance, marketing, multimedia and web site design.
· Investors were expected to spend twice the government's $272 million
investment in setting up their businesses in the complex.  More than 12,000 inquiries have been received from companies.  About 200 firms are expected to participate.
· The complex will be completed in October.
· "The aim is to turn Dubai Internet City into the hub of talent in this
part of the world."  Gergawi said DIC would attract talent from the region
stretching from India to South Africa.
Source: Reuters

AIRPORT INFORMATION SYSTEM SALE
The Dubai International Airport has installed a flight information
management system including software and plasma display screens provided by the Siemens-Conrac consortium valued at $4.35 million according to Gulf
News.  This project brings the total of Dubai Civil Aviation projects
performed by Siemens in the last three years to about $27.2 million.
Source: Gulf News

BANK REVENUES DOWN
The National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) reported its annual revenues were down 22 percent in 1999 according to Stanley Carvalho writing in Gulf News last week.  The decline in NBAD's net profit, $84.6 million for 1999 down from $108.3 in 1998, was attributed to lower interest income.  Source: Gulf News

~~~~~~ GULF WEB LINKS ~~~~~~ GULF WEB LINKS ~~~~~~

These on-line articles provide background information on current
developments.  (Opinions, analyses and forecasts offered in these articles
are not necessarily those of GulfWire.)

E-Biz
Dubai World Trade Center to organize e-business conference - The conference
will study the effects of the emerging e-business model on the businesses in the Middle East.
http://www.arabia.com/article/0,1690,Business-16046,00.html 
Dubai to lure world e-commerce firms - The emirate's 'Internet City' had
received more than 12,000 company inquiries since the project was announced, according to the City's head.
http://www.arabia.com/article/0,1690,Business-15761,00.html 
Qatar plans to introduce 'e-government' - The project would take around
two-and-a-half years to implement and help to reduce costs and bureaucracy,
source reports.
http://www.arabia.com/article/0,1690,Business-15602,00.html 
Saudi industrial giant enters age of e-commerce - The company has a San
Francisco-based electronic commerce company for online trading in chemicals
and plastics, source reports.
http://www.arabia.com/article/0,1690,Business-14830,00.html 
IT BUSINESS VIEWS
The manager IBM's Middle East operations told ITPArabia.com the company's
slow start in the region's e-business market was being turned around.  Farid Metwaly told the on-line news service, "Everywhere I speak, I am going to make sure that we explain to our customers what IBM's e-business strategy is all about, and how we can help them."  He added, "It's not just about IBM selling them a box and making money, it's about the whole future of this region."  Metwaly cited the Dubai Internet City and a cybervillage project in Egypt as sources of optimism for IT prospects in the region.  "I feel that this region is at a stage where it can pull together and make it in the 21st century or we will be left way behind. We can do it. I'm optimistic that what Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and Dubai are doing will provide the basis and a model for other governments in the Middle East."  Source: ITPArabia.com

Oman Economic Prospects
Economic briefing: Oman - Merrier times in Muscat
http://www.meed.com/article.asp?ArticleID=431 
Oman: Gas pipelines awarded
http://www.meed.com/article.asp?ArticleID=435 

The Sultanate of Oman - A Special International Report Prepared by The
Washington Times Advertising Department
· The Backbone to Oman's Structural Growth is Sultan Qaboos
· Rapid Growth Continues Into a New Century
· U.S. and Oman: An Enduring Relationship
· A Message From H.E. Ambassador Abdulla Bin Mohammed Al-Dhahab
· U.S. Ambassador John B. Craig Comments on 200-year Relationship
· Why Should the U.S. Invest in Oman?
· Coordination Paves the Way for Diversification
· National Economy is Moving Toward Growth
· A Potential Successor Speaks Out Briefly on Foreign Affairs
· New Port Breaks Into Top 20 League
· Promoting Industrialization by Giving it a Boost
· OFO Seeks to be a Global Market Leader
· Al-Felaij Castle Theater Awakens Cultural Enlightenment
· LNG Emerges as a Major Contributor to the National Economy
· Oman at a Glance
· Omani Women Enjoy Liberation as They Hold to Traditions
· Oman: The Hidden Jewel of the Arabian Peninsula
· What can Tourists See and Do in Oman?
All articles can be accessed through the Washington Times web site:
http://www.washtimes.com/internatlads/oman/index.html 

OMAN FROM SPACE
Imagery from the February 2000 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) - a
stunning view of the Omani coast including the port of Salalah.
http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/PIAGenCatalogPage.pl?PIA02735 
For information on ordering SRTM imagery:
Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/srtm/ 
USGS EROS Data Center
http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/ 

~~~~~~ PERSPECTIVES ~~~~~~ PERSPECTIVES ~~~~~~

                          *     GW     *

Excerpt from
Statement by Director of Central Intelligence George J. Tenet
Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Washington, DC
March 21, 2000

The Worldwide Threat in 2000: Global Realities of Our National Security

Iraq

With regard to Iraq, Saddam faced a difficult start in 1999 -- including the most serious Shia unrest since 1991 and significant economic difficulties.

-- The Shia unrest was not confined to the south but also affected some
areas of Baghdad itself, presenting Saddam's regime with a major security
problem.  On the economic side, to rein in inflation, stabilize the dinar,
and reduce the budget deficit, Saddam was forced to raise taxes, ease
foreign exchange controls, and cut non-wage public spending.

Saddam has, however, shown himself to be politically agile enough to weather these challenges.  He brutally suppressed the Shia uprisings of last spring and early summer.  The regime is still gaining some revenue from illegal oil sales.  Increased access to food and medical supplies through the oil for food program has improved living conditions in Baghdad.

A major worry is Iraqi repair of facilities damaged during Operation Desert
Fox that could be associated with WMD programs.  Without inspections, it is
harder to gauge Saddam's programs, but we assume he continues to attach high priority to preserving a WMD infrastructure.  And Iraq's conventional
military remains one of the largest in the Middle East, even though it is
now less than half the size during the Gulf War.

-- He can still hurt coalition forces, but his military options are sharply
limited to actions like sporadically challenging no-fly-zone enforcement.

In sum, to the extent that Saddam has had any successes in the last year,
they have been largely tactical.  In a strategic sense, he is still on a
downward path.  His economic infrastructure continues to deteriorate, the
Kurdish-inhabited northern tier remains outside the grip of his army, and
although many governments are sympathetic to the plight of the Iraqi people, few if any are willing to call Saddam an ally.

(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State.  Iraq Info)

                   *     GW     *

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE NOON BRIEFING
BY FRED ECKHARD
SPOKESMAN FOR THE SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE UNITED NATIONS
UN HEADQUARTERS, NEW YORK

March 21, 2000

REPORT OF GROUP OF EXPERTS ON IRAQI OIL INDUSTRY RELEASED

On Monday afternoon, the Office of the Iraq Program published on its
website the report of the Group of Experts that went to Iraq in January to
examine the current state of the Iraqi oil industry.

The report reflects the combination of expertise by the six-member group and the cooperation the team received from the Ministry of Oil.

They analyzed the impact of holds on Iraq's production capacity and also
indicated efforts by the Office of the Iraq Program to have the holds
lifted.

The experts argue that too little essential equipment is arriving in Iraq to provide a solution to the daily crises experienced by the oil industry. At present, there is an investment of 60 cents per barrel of oil, compared to the Middle East average of around $1.50 per barrel for operating
expenditures.

OTHER ANNOUNCEMENTS

Asked about the Monday meeting between the Secretary-General and his Special Envoy to Iraq, Prakash Shah, the Spokesman said that the two held a private meeting and also reviewed Shah's mandate and work. Shah continues to be a Special Envoy, Eckhard said, although he is no longer based in Baghdad. The Monday meeting reviewed his work in light of the creation of the new UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC).

(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State.  Iraq Info)

UN Office of the Iraq Program

Executive Summary from the report:

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

· The lamentable state of the Iraqi Oil Industry has not improved.
· The level of oil exports during phase 7 will decline from the level of 2.2
million barrels per day achieved in phase 6, to a level of between 1.8 to
1.9 million barrels per day.
· A further production decline of between 5% to 15% per annum is forecast
unless the delivery of spare parts and equipment is immediately accelerated.
· The oil transportation infrastructure has not been improved during the
last two years.
· Insufficient spare parts and equipment have arrived in time to sustain
production.
· The issues of pollution and safety have not been addressed.
· An alternative investment strategy for optimizing production, by applying
modern recovery techniques such as horizontal drilling, is recommended.

*     GW     *

[The IEA report on China's energy requirements includes discussion of the
implications for Gulf oil providers.]

IEA Examines China’s Quest for Worldwide Energy Security
IEA/PRESS(00)3
Paris, 20 March 2000

With primary energy consumption second only to that of the United States,
China is an energy superpower and the world’s largest potential market for
energy. It is the world’s third largest producer of energy, the largest
producer of coal and the sixth largest producer of crude oil. China leads
the world in biomass consumption. It is the world’s second largest emitter
of carbon, accounting for 14% of the world’s total emissions and is
projected to become the largest over the next few decades.

There has been for some time a clear need for a thorough and independent
survey of China’s efforts to ensure secure and sufficient energy supplies.
And today, the International Energy Agency launches a new report, China’s
Worldwide Quest for Energy Security, in the presence of His Excellency Wu
Jian the Ambassador of the Chinese People’s Republic to France.

This publication examines the efforts of Chinese leaders who have scoured
the world for dependable and affordable oil imports. It considers the
country’s ultimate role in the world energy system. It raises the question
whether China’s efforts will divert oil and other energies away from OECD
Member countries and whether it will act as a responsible international
citizen, working to fit into established patterns of energy trade and
investment.

There is no doubt that China’s near-term energy behavior matters critically
not only to its own citizens – who account for one-fifth of the world’s
population – but to the world at large. China’s Worldwide Quest for Energy
Security concludes that China is likely to continue along the path of
international cooperation, rather than confrontation in its efforts to
ensure a secure energy supply.

The study examines the root causes of China’s energy security concerns, its
public policy responses and its growing links with major energy suppliers.

Though the Chinese have made strenuous efforts to exploit their domestic
resources, economic growth eventually overwhelmed those efforts. China’s
stagnant oil production has not kept up with its rapidly rising energy
consumption and since 1993, has been a net oil importer. Gas imports are
also projected to increase as China switches to cleaner energy.

China’s energy policy has been changing swiftly to meet this new reality.
Although some policies still reflect attitudes assumed in the days of energy
self-sufficiency, Chinese leaders have quickly grasped the essentials of
energy-security issues in an import-dependent environment. Their basic
strategies are (i) maximum development of domestic resources, (ii) creation
of strategic reserves, (iii) seeking foreign technology and investment, and
(iv) making strategic investments in upstream production facilities abroad.

Over the past decade China has created a network of energy relationships
across the entire Asian land mass and even in Africa. These efforts have
been coordinated with China’s wider investment, trade and foreign policy
objectives. The Chinese are also intensively studying how the rest of the
world operates in the energy sector.

Aware of its growing dependency on imported energy and foreign investment
and technology, China seeks a more prominent position in the existing global energy system.  Where they can, the Chinese try to open new connections. So external energy policies are increasingly entwined with foreign economic and security policies in general. The Middle East is emerging as the main supplier of China’s crude imports. Russia, Central Asia, ASEAN and West Africa will also be important areas in China’s future energy supply. 

The role of this vast nation in global energy markets can only grow stronger with time.  Trade and investment are the main elements in China’s energy co-operation with the rest of the world today. More joint development could take place tomorrow: such ventures are already in place in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iraq and Sudan.

These considerations have led the IEA to develop close co-operation and
intensive dialogue with China. In 1996 the two parties signed a Memorandum
of Policy Understanding in the Field of Energy. We have organized with the
Chinese more than a dozen workshops, seminars and conferences – the latest
one on China’s natural gas industry in Beijing on 9-10 November 1999. The
Agency has published a number of China-related studies, including "Energy
Efficiency Improvements in China: Policy Measures, Innovative Finance and
Technology Deployment", "Coal in the Energy Supply of China" and an
important China chapter in "Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices
Right".

The IEA has a role to play in improving the mutual understanding, broadening mutually beneficial co-operation and dialogue between its Member countries and China. It will continue to share its expertise and experiences on challenges that China is currently facing.  China’s Worldwide Quest for Energy Security is further evidence of the Agency’s readiness to address the issues arising from China’s rapidly changing energy stance.

News Media Contact: Scott Sullivan (+33 1) 40.57.65.54; E-mail:
scott.sullivan@iea.org  
For more information check "What's New" at http://www.iea.org 

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PATRICK W. RYAN
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C. R. TRISDALE
Deputy Editor, GulfWire 
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