Editor’s Note:
The Jadwa Investment firm in Riyadh introduced the “Saudi Chartbook” to provide a quick, chart-based briefing on the key developments and trends in the Saudi economy and stock market. SUSRIS is pleased to provide the summary from the February Saudi Chartbook and a link to the complete report, rich with illuminating charts and graphs. SUSRIS thanks Jadwa Investment’s Chief Economist, Brad Bourland, Head of Research, Paul Gamble and Associate Research Director Gasim Abdulkarim, for providing this insightful report for your consideration.
[Complete report with charts, graphs and tables at this link.]
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Saudi Chartbook
February 2012
Summary
Real economy: Data for December show that the economy posted the usual post-Eid al-Adha recovery. Guides to consumer spending remained strong both in absolute and year-on-year terms. Cement sales were almost at their all-time high in December.
Bank deposits: Bank deposits jumped in line with the usual trend in December. Private sector deposits accounted for most of the gain. While demand deposits continued to grow rapidly, time deposits recorded their first annual growth for over two years.
Bank lending: Bank lending to the private sector fell a little in December. This appears to be related to seasonal factors rather than a change in risk appetite. Bank lending growth in 2011 was the highest since 2008.
Inflation: Year-on-year inflation was little changed for the fourth consecutive month in December. Domestically-generated sources of inflation continued to rise, offset by a modest fall in food price inflation. Rental inflation was unchanged for the third month in a row.
Trade: Imports and exports both declined during November, probably due to the Eid al-Adha holiday. Both were higher than in November 2010. Data from the ports show that volumes of imports and exports rebounded in December.
Click here for the original report with charts and graphs.
Oil: Oil prices have been fairly stable during January, with concerns around Iranian supply offset by a weakening global economy. The Oil Minister recently said that the Kingdom’s oil production could be increased rapidly within a few days, if required.
Exchange rates: The euro has broken its fall against the dollar, but with the European Central Bank expected to be more active in supporting the Eurozone at the same time as data from the US economy has remained strong, a further fall appears likely.
Stock market: The TASI maintained its upward trend during January, buoyed by strength in global markets, though it underperformed many owing to some disappointment with fourth quarter results and heightening regional political tensions.
Sectoral performance: Thirteen of the 15 sectors were up through January 29. Performance was broadly in line with market perceptions of fourth quarter results.
Fourth quarter results: Net income of listed companies totaled SR21.5 billion in the fourth quarter. As normal, the fourth quarter was the worst for the year, though it was petrochemicals, rather than banks, that pulled earnings down.
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About Jadwa Investment - Jadwa Investment is a Saudi Closed Joint Stock company operating under the supervision of the Saudi Arabian Capital Markets Authority (CMA). Under the CMA decision published on August 21, 2006, Jadwa was awarded a license to offer all types of investment services including dealing, managing, custody, arranging and advising. All investment services offered by Jadwa Investment are supervised by a Shariah Supervisory Board and are fully Shariah-compliant.
For comments and queries you can contact the authors:
Paul Gamble, Head of Research
pgamble@jadwa.com
and:
Gasim Abdulkarim, Associate Director: Research
gabdulkarim@jadwa.com
or:
Brad Bourland, CFA, Chief Economist
jadwaresearch@jadwa.com
***
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