By Thomas W. Lippman
Thomas Lippman
Saudi Arabia is among the many countries with a lot at stake in Egypt. The emergence of a radical regime from the wreckage of the Mubarak era —whether religious or, less likely, extreme populist – would certainly be troublesome for the Kingdom. A complete state failure, Somalia-style, would be even more dangerous. So far, however, there is not much reason to believe that the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia portend similar developments in Saudi Arabia, where the political and popular environment is quite different.
The Saudis value stability — in the oil market, in their own country and, to the extent that it is achievable, in the wider region. They cannot be happy with the turmoil in Egypt, which could neutralize a strong Sunni ally in their contest with Iran, disrupt oil transportation through the Suez Canal, inspire ideological challenges to monarchy as a ruling order and in, the event of a complete breakdown, provoke a wave of illegal immigration that would swamp the Kingdom’s ability to deal with it. An Islamist takeover in Cairo could bring a dangerous challenge to Saudi supremacy in the faith and inspire popular sentiment against the Kingdom’s alliance with the United States.
At the same time, however, the royal rulers in Riyadh have strengths and assets that make them much less vulnerable to an uprising than were the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt. King Abdullah is personally popular, in part because he curbed the corruption and excesses that marked the rule of his predecessor. He is widely perceived as a pious, honest, hardworking ruler who has taken small but symbolically important steps toward greater individual liberty for his subjects. The rulers of Saudi Arabia possess a tribal legitimacy that goes back at least three centuries; they are not dictators who seized power without regard for the people. They are supported by the many Saudis who have prospered under royal rule, and by the religious establishment, which they control.
Unlike Tunisia and Egypt, Saudi Arabia has vast wealth that can be, and often is, deployed to improve the lives of ordinary citizens. The economy is growing, and while unemployment is high there are opportunities for energetic young people.
In short, the Saudi regime finds itself surrounded by fitna, or disorder – in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Yemen and even Lebanon. It makes life more difficult but it does not yet threaten the regime’s survival.
About Thomas Lippman
Thomas W. Lippman is a senior adjunct scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. His career in journalism at the Washington Post included four years as the Washington Post’s Middle East bureau chief, three years as the Post’s oil and energy reporter and a decade as the newspaper’s national security and diplomatic correspondent, he traveled extensively to Saudi Arabia. He is the author of “Arabian Knight: Colonel Bill Eddy USMC and the Rise of American Power in the Middle East,” “Inside the Mirage: America’s Fragile Partnership with Saudi Arabia,” ” Madeleine Albright and the New American Diplomacy,” ” Understanding Islam, and Egypt After Nasser”. A writer and journalist specializing in U.S. foreign policy and Middle Eastern affairs, he lives in Washington, DC.
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